1. PROJECT
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Title: CLimate-Energy modelling for Assessing Resilience: HEAt Decarbonisation and the Northwest European Supergrid (CLEARHEADS)
Dates: 1st January 2021 - 31st December 2021
Funding organisation: Supergen Energy Networks Hub flexible fund
Grant no.: EP/S00078X/1 (Supergen Energy Networks Hub 2018)

2. DATASET
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Title: Future climate projections of surface weather variables, wind power, and solar power capacity factors across North-West Europe
Publication Year: 2021
Creator(s): H.C. Bloomfield, D.J. Brayshaw 
Organisation(s): University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Source(s): This dataset was created using meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis available from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (2017): ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), date of access: 14-01-2019. https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home
Delta corrections were created from high-resolution climate model simulations from the PRIMAVERA project (https://primavera-h2020.eu) with climate data downloaded from the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) archive, available through the JASMIN supercomputing service. The data is being published through CEDA's node in the UK at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/search/cmip6-ceda/.

Cite as: Bloomfield, Hannah and Brayshaw, David (2021): Future climate projections of surface weather variables, wind power, and solar power capacity factors across North-West Europe. Univeristy of Reading Dataset https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000331. 

3. TERMS OF USE
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Copyright 2021 University of Reading. This dataset is licensed by the rights-holder(s) under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

4. CONTENTS
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The hourly time-series of near-surface meteorological variables, degree days, wind power capacity factor and solar power capacity factor data can be found in the relevant subdirectories in netCDF files organised into Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) regions. Further details of the NUTS zones are given in the methods and processing section.
The files contain hourly time-series from the ERA5 data (as seen in Bloomfield and Brayshaw (2021)) but also include the impact of climate change from five different climate model simulations by implementing a delta correction method (Maraun, 2016).
The contents of each folder are described below.

degree_days:
NUTS_0_CDD_historical_pop_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Daily population weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDD) at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_HDD_historical_pop_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Daily population weighted Heating Degree Days (HDD) at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_CDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Cooling Degree Days (CDD) at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_HDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Heating Degree Days (HDD) at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_1_CDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Cooling Degree Days (CDD) at NUTS1 level across the UK, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_1_HDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Heating Degree Days (HDD) at NUTS1 level across the UK, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_CDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Cooling Degree Days (CDD) at NUTS1 level over Scotland, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_HDD_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Daily area-averaged Heating Degree Days (HDD) at NUTS1 level over Scotland, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

solar_power_capacity_factor:
NUTS_0_sp_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged solar power capacity factors at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_sp_historical_loc_weighted_delta_corrs.nc  - Hourly solar power capacity factors at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Data is weighted by the location of known solar panels from Dunnett et al., (2020) and Stowell et al., (2020) for the UK.
NUTS_1_sp_historica_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged solar power capacity factors at NUTS1 level over the UK from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_sp_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged solar power capacity factors at NUTS2 level over Scotland from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

speed100m:
NUTS_0_speed100m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 100m wind speed data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_1_speed100m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 100m wind speed data at NUTS1 level over the UK from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_speed100m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 100m wind speed data at NUTS2 level over Scotland from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

speed10m:
NUTS_0_speed10m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 10m wind speed data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_speed10m_historical_pop_weighted_delta_corrs.nc  - Hourly population weighted 10m wind speed data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. 
NUTS_1_speed10m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 10m wind speed data at NUTS1 level over the UK from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_speed10m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 10m wind speed data at NUTS2 level over Scotland from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

ssrd:
NUTS_0_ssrd_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged surface shortwave radiation data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_0_ssrd_historical_pop_weighted_delta_corrs.nc  - Hourly population weighted surface shortwave radiation data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. 
NUTS_1_ssrd_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged surface shortwave radiation data at NUTS1 level over the UK from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
NUTS_2_ssrd_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged surface shortwave radiation data at NUTS2 level over Scotland from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

t2m:
NUTS_0_t2m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 2m temperature data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Data is detrended to various warming levels.
NUTS_0_t2m_historical_pop_weighted_delta_corrs.nc  - Hourly population weighted 2m temperature data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Data is detrended to various warming levels.
NUTS_1_t2m_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 2m temperature data at NUTS1 level over the UK from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Data is detrended to various warming levels.
NUTS_2_t2m_historica_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged 2m temperature data at NUTS2 level over Scotland from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Data is detrended to various warming levels.

wp_offshore:
NUTS_0_wp_ofs_sim_0_historical_loc_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged onshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Weighted by the locations of known wind farms from thewindpower.net using the 2021 wind farm distribution (simulation 0).
NUTS_0_wp_ofs_sim_1_historical_loc_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged onshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Weighted by the locations of known and proposed future wind farms from thewindpower.net (simulation 1).
EEZ_zones_wp_historical_delta_corrs.nc Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data over national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) across Europe from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
Shipping_zones_Ireland_wp_ofs_historical_delta_corrs.nc Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data over the UK Met office Shipping forecasting zones with Irelands Exclusive Economic Zone, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
Shipping_zones_Norway_wp_ofs_historical_delta_corrs.nc Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data over the UK Met office Shipping forecasting zones with Norway’s Exclusive Economic Zone, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.
Shipping_zones_United_Kingdom_wp_ofs_historical_delta_corrs.nc Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data over the UK Met office Shipping forecasting zones with the United Kingdoms Exclusive Economic Zone from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

wp_onshore:
NUTS_0_wp_ons_sim_0_historical_loc_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Weighted by the locations of known wind farms from thewindpower.net using the 2021 wind farm distribution (simulation 0).
NUTS_0_wp_ons_sim_1_historical_loc_weighted_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged offshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS0 level across Europe, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. Weighted by the locations of known and proposed future wind farms from thewindpower.net (simulation 1).
NUTS_1_wp_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged onshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS1 level over the UK, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020. 
NUTS_2_wp_historical_delta_corrs.nc - Hourly area-averaged onshore wind power capacity factor data at NUTS1 level over Scotland, from 01/01/1950 - 31/12/2020.

main_python_scripts:
functions_for_creating_NUTS_data
master_for_creating_NUTS_data

5. METHOD and PROCESSING
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Within the datasets above different regions are used for the NUTS0, NUTS1 and NUTS2 data products.

For NUTS0 the countries used are: United Kingdom, Ireland, Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia.

For NUTS1 the zones used over the UK are: UKC, UKD, UKE, UKF, UKG, UKH, UKI, UKJ, UKK, UKL, UKM, UKN.

For NUTS2 the zones used over Scotland are: UKM5, UKM6, UKM7, UKM8, UKM9.

The Countries Exclusive Economic zones (EEZ) for which offshore wind power generation is calculated are:
France, Italy, Portugal, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Bulgaria, Spain, Norway, United Kingdom, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Poland. 

The Met office shipping zones within the Ireland EEZ are:
Lundy Fastnet Irish_Sea Shannon Rockall Malin

The Met office shipping zones within the Norway EEZ are:
South_Utsire Forties Fisher

The Met office shipping zones within the United Kingdom EEZ are:
Forties Cromarty Forth Tyne Dogger Fisher Humber Thames Dover Wight Portland Plymouth Lundy Irish_Sea Malin Hebrides,Fair_Isle'

Wind Power model:
A time series of hourly wind power capacity factor for each spatial region was derived from 100m wind speed data from the ERA5 reanalysis. These winds are calibrated using the method in Bloomfield et al. (2020) and extrapolated down to the average height of an onshore or offshore wind turbine from thewindpower.net database. The wind power generation in each grid box was then calculated by passing the extrapolated wind speeds through an onshore or offshore power curve taken from a National Grid report. This can then either be area averaged or weighted by the location of the turbines (taken from thewindpower.net database) to get regional-aggregate wind power capacity factor data.

Solar Power model:
A time series of hourly solar power capacity factor for each spatial region was derived from 2m temperatures and surface short wave radiation data from the ERA5 reanalysis. This is an empirical model developed from the methods used in Evans and Florschuetz (1977) and Bett and Thornton (2016).

Heating Degree days and cooling degree days:
Calculated using the methods described in Bloomfield et al. (2020)

Delta corrections:
As described in Maraun (2016) The reference period from ERA5 is 1980-2010 and the future climate period is 2020-2050. The seasonal percentiles of the seasonal distribution are calculated in each ERA5 gridbox and then ERA5 is calibrated to represent the climate of 2020-2050 from the five climate model simulations.

References:

Dunnett, S., Sorichetta, A., Taylor, G., & Eigenbrod, F. (2020). Harmonised global datasets of wind and solar farm locations and power. Scientific data, 7(1), 1-12.

Evans, D.L. and L.W. Florschuetz (1977). Cost studies on terrestrial photovoltaic power systems with sunlight concentration. Solar Energy, 19, 255-262.

Bett, P. E., & Thornton, H. E. (2016). The climatological relationships between wind and solar energy supply in Britain. Renewable Energy, vol 87 pt 1, 96-110. DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.006.

Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., & Charlton‐Perez, A. J. (2020). Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types. Meteorological Applications, 27(1), e1858.

Bloomfield, Hannah and Brayshaw, David (2021): ERA5 derived time series of European aggregated surface weather variables, wind power, and solar power capacity factors: hourly data from 1950-2020. University of Reading. Dataset. https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/321

Maraun, D. (2016). Bias correcting climate change simulations-a critical review. Current Climate Change Reports, 2(4), 211-220.

Stowell, D., Kelly, J., Tanner, D., Taylor, J., Jones, E., Geddes, J., & Chalstrey, E. (2020). A harmonised, high-coverage, open dataset of solar photovoltaic installations in the UK. Scientific Data, 7(1), 1-15.