High-impact low-likelihood climate risks in the UK

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/document/11000 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/document/11000 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/document/11000 archive 811 disk0/00/00/15/11 2026-03-27 11:50:29 2026-03-27 11:50:29 2026-03-27 11:50:29 data_collection show Arnell Nigel 731927 Climate University of Reading lead High-impact low-likelihood climate risks in the UK 5_c6358d36 public Climate Risk Indicators high-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios reasonable worst cases This data set contains a series of indicators of future climate risk at the regional scale across the United Kingdom, for a suite of high-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios. The indicators cover heat and cold extremes, agricultural risks, wildfire danger and river runoff. The scenarios describe enhanced warming above 4oC, rapid reductions in aerosol emissions, volcanic eruptions, strong Arctic amplification, and major changes to the ocean circulation. Indicators are also calculated for scenarios assuming increases in global average temperature of 3 and 4oC by 2100. 2026 published University of Reading 10.17864/1947.001511 Met Office CR20-4 Research Ireland Climate Resilience - high impact storylines and scenarios for risk assessment and planning H5498500 Co-Centre for Climate Biodiversity and Water H5560810 Dataset University of Reading UK en en 2023 2025 1980 2100 UK Climate Risk Indicators Website https://uk-cri.org High‐impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for risk assessment in the UK https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127619 2026 researchdata@reading.ac.uk AdminContact yes TRUE Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ TRUE Arnell, N.W., Hawkins, E. & Shepherd, T.G. (2026) Potential high-impact low-likelihood climate risks in the UK. Environmental Research Letters in review. open FALSE